1Explain the bias-variance trade-off.
Prediction error comes from three sources: bias (error from overly simple assumptions), variance (error from sensitivity to the specific training data) and irreducible noise.
- A high-bias model underfits: a straight line through curved data; poor on training and test data.
- A high-variance model overfits: a very deep tree that memorises noise; excellent on training data, poor on test data.
Increasing complexity lowers bias and raises variance. The goal is the complexity that minimises validation error. Tools: regularisation, cross-validation, more data (reduces variance), ensembles (bagging reduces variance; boosting reduces bias), and better features (reduce bias).